Generalized Pareto regression trees for extreme event analysis

Orateur: Maud THOMAS
Localisation: , France
Type: Séminaire de probabilités et statistiques
Site: UGE , 4B 125
Date de début: 15/03/2022 - 10:30
Date de fin: 15/03/2022 - 11:30

We provide finite sample results to assess the consistency of Generalized Pareto regression trees, as tools to perform extreme value regression. The results that we provide are obtained from concentration inequalities, and are valid for a finite sample size, taking into account a misspecification bias that arises from the use of a ``Peaks over Threshold'' approach. The properties that we derive also legitimate the pruning strategies (i.e. the model selection rules) used to select a proper tree that achieves compromise between bias and variance. The methodology is illustrated through a simulation study, and a real data application in insurance against natural disasters.

 

joint work with S. Farkas, A. Heranval and O. Lopez.